The following are desk-proposed underwriting tests, not economic forecasts or probabilities:
| Test | Suggested sensitivity to evaluate | Decision output |
|---|---|---|
| Room-revenue shortfall | 5% and 10% below the property’s documented base case | Cash shortfall and revised bid threshold |
| Payroll pressure | 5% above the proposed staffing budget | Whether planned service remains affordable |
| Financing pressure | 100 basis points above the actual quoted rate, where relevant | Coverage and liquidity impact |
| Capital overrun | 15% above the independently reviewed works budget | Additional equity requirement |
| Reopening delay | 60 days beyond the supported programme | Lost contribution, carrying costs and reserve need |
Run the scenarios jointly as well as individually. Adjust their severity for the property rather than treating these illustrative inputs as industry standards.
The September 16 Fed decision increased the policy target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Our interpretation is that a Q4 financing case should stand on actual lender terms, not an assumed near-term easing cycle. (federalreserve.gov)