A boutique hotel should be evaluated on its property-level cash flow and funding requirements, not on a national hotel growth forecast. Public forecasts provide context, but they do not establish what a particular independent hotel can earn.
The public outlooks checked for this report illustrate why forecast dates matter:
| Published outlook | Forecast reported | How a buyer should use it |
|---|---|---|
| CoStar/STR and Tourism Economics, August 6, 2026 | US RevPAR growth of 4.4% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027 | A national scenario reference, not a boutique-hotel underwriting assumption |
| CBRE, 2026 midyear review | US RevPAR growth of 2.5% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027 | An alternative forecast vintage and methodology—not a directly interchangeable observation |
These are forecasts, not completed full-year results. The difference between them should not be presented as a consensus range for a particular property. (costar.com)
CoStar’s September 24, 2026 discussion continued to reference its 4.4% full-year forecast while identifying difficult 2027 comparisons against the summer 2026 event period. Our underwriting implication: isolate exceptional event nights rather than carrying their premiums into every future year. (costar.com)
Before treating the market backdrop as supportive, require four property-level answers:
- Which customers generate weekday, weekend and low-season demand?
- What achieved—not advertised—rates support the forecast?
- What capital and operating changes are necessary to deliver it?
- Can the owner fund the downside without relying on an immediate refinancing or sale?
A strong national outlook cannot repair an unsupported purchase price.